The Russia-Ukraine conflict spurred a global energy crisis, leading to significant price surges. As a result we are entitled to ask ourselves, when the Ukrainian War ends to our energy bills. 

In short, if the Ukraine war ended, oil prices would likely come under downward pressure fairly quickly (more supply, weaker risk premium), but European gas prices would probably fall much less — and slowly — because Europe has already diversified away from Russian piped gas and political, contractual and infrastructure limits make a rapid return unlikely. The UK would see some relief in wholesale prices over months, but household bill changes would depend on contract timing and policy.

So whats the mechanics of it all? Oil is a globally traded commodity. An end to hostilities that leads to easing of sanctions (or higher Russian exports) instantly increases expected future supply and removes a “risk premium” priced into oil — this pushes global oil prices lower. Markets often price this in before/while talks proceed.

Gas is more regional and infrastructure-dependent. Europe’s ability too rapidly take large volumes of piped Russian gas depends on pipelines, contracts and political will — all of which are constrained. Europe has rebuilt supply diversity (LNG, pipeline re-routing, storage, demand reduction, renewables), so a peace deal doesn’t automatically restore the pre-2022 gas flows. That mutes the price reaction for European gas relative to oil.

As for LNG & global gas markets, any incremental Russian volumes that reach the market (pipeline or seaborne) would ease global LNG tightness, lowering spot LNG prices and feeding into European TTF over time — but timing is phased and depends on how Russia decides to sell and which buyers accept those volumes.

So with these global market mechanics in mind, we have three realistic scenarios (and their likely price outcomes)

In the first scenario, of fast full reintegration as sanctions eased. That is Western sanctions on Russian energy are rapidly eased, Russian oil and (to a lesser extent) gas flows return to pre-crisis channels with OPEC & Russia possibly coordinate, their response. 

The likely impact for oil is a noticeable fall in oil prices (removal of risk premium + extra volumes). With gas, there would be some downward pressure globally, but modest in Europe because pipeline reversals and acceptance by buyers take time. In short, we would have short-term market swings and the medium term depends on OPEC reaction. The market commentary already shows oil softening when peace talks progress.

The second scenario, is a partial unwind / ceasefire with limited trade normalisation. Here the fighting stops or reduces with limited relaxation of trade, but most sanctions or buyer reluctance remain. Russia sells more crude to discount markets (ie traders/third parties) but big European flows stay low. The likely impact here is oil modestly lower (some extra supply, but not a full restoration); European gas largely unchanged or slightly down — LNG supplies and storage remain main drivers. This is the most probable immediate outcome.

With a ceasefire only and political obstacles persist, the hostilities pause but sanctions and political barriers to buying Russian gas/oil remain. Russia may sell into distant markets but not reverse Europe’s diversification. As the likely impact here is oil may dip on sentiment but quickly stabilise; European gas barely changes — prices continue to reflect LNG flows, storage and weather. This is plausible and consistent with analysts saying Europe won’t quickly reverse course.

Globally oil markets will have the strongest and fastest impact. Prices will generally fall if the war ends and sanctions ease because global supply expectations rise and risk premia shrink. Though the magnitude is uncertain as markets will also react to OPEC+/Russia policy, as they may cut prices production to defend prices. Recent trading shows oil already sensitive to peace-talk headlines. Globally the gas / LNG market effect is slower. Additional Russian seaborne gas/LNG would ease global LNG tightness and lower spot LNG prices; but re-routing and commercial acceptance take time.

Europe

Wholesale gas (TTF hub in Netherlands) prices are likely only modestly lower in the near term. Reasons being 

(a) Europe has diversified (LNG, inter-connectors),

(b) pipeline infrastructure (Nord Stream) was damaged or politically unusable,

(c) many buyers and governments have explicit policy against resuming dependence.

This while storage levels and weather are still the dominant short-term drivers. The market reaction to peace-talk headlines has already been modest.

The wholesale electricity market follows gas but with lag, so power prices should soften if gas weakens materially.

As for industry and competitiveness, cheaper oil does reduce transport/fuel costs globally. Whilst lower gas helps energy-intensive industries if wholesale falls persist.

United Kingdom

What will happen here in the UK? Wholesale prices, would likely trend down if global oil and (to a smaller extent) LNG soften. The UK is part of the integrated European gas & power system, so a sustained fall in European wholesale would reach UK markets.

As for household bills, pass-through will depend on when fixed contracts roll, the price cap mechanism, and government interventions. So consumers won’t see an instantaneous proportional cut. A UK parliamentary briefing shows wholesale falls feed into price cap decisions with a lag.

Whilst sentiment moves fast, the fundamentals take months. Oil often reacts quickly to news; while gas in Europe is governed by physical constraints and storage, so the real effects are slower.

Yet policy & politics matter. Even if the war ends, political reluctance in the EU/UK to resume old energy ties (or conditions attached) would limit flows — that’s a key reason gas prices probably won’t crash back to pre-2022 levels. So consumers: expect gradual, not instant, bill reductions — check the timing of fixed tariffs and the Ofgem price cap cycles as well. 

So the likely timeline of impact is immediately in the days and weeks ahead, oil reacts down on optimism while gas reacts limitedly. In the short–medium – (1–6 months) – if sanctions/flows change materially, oil settles lower while LNG flows and contract resales gradually lower global gas prices.

Whilst in the medium–long (6–24 months): structural change dependent on formal trade normalisation and infrastructure (contracts, pipeline repairs, new shipping routes). Here Europe is likely to continue its diversification measures, so gas prices may not revert fully to old norms.

Finally the quick policy and market implications for businesses would be if your an energy-intensive industries you’ll have to monitor forward curves and LNG availability and consider hedging if you expect gradual price decreases but high near-term volatility.